How much does Personality affect Oscar chances?

So there's been an ongoing discussion on this sub for a while on how likeable Brady Corbet is, and whether or not his personality rubs certain members of the academy and industry folk in general the wrong way, to the extent that he's not winning because of it. Some have cited his Q&As, his pretentious, his interview with Sean Baker, with many saying he's rude, talkative, arrogant and elitist. Some have even said this recently in response to him losing DGA. Whether or not this is true, is your own opinion of how you view him, but seeing how surprisingly common said sentiment is, I wonder if there's any legitimacy in it in your eyes.

Does the call out of producers in his Globe speech really rub them the wrong way where The Brutalist loses PGA, do they think he's too cocky and lacking in humility for a director so young and on his third feature, and has that sullied people's opinion. Does personality have a genuine effect on someone's chances.

There's obviously multiple ways to cut this, and you can easily point to some truly evil winners, like Polanski, as proof as to how little they care, but I am specifically talking about someone's personality and demeanor, rather than actions.

I think other instances where we can see personality and likeability play a factor, is easily with the acting categories. The industry loves Jamie Lee Curtis, and maybe even beyond a narrative argument, they just like her and want her to win. Same could be said with Ke Huy Quan, Robert Downey Jr, Brendan Fraser ect.

With non actors, you can point to Guillermo del Toro. Incredibly popular, supportive and well liked, and despite The Shape of Water not being viewed as one of the best winners, he still won. Even the overdue argument would work better than PTA and Nolan that very year, but despite Del Toro having a less traditional and respected filmography when analysing if it appeals to Academy tastes, with big blockbuster passion projects, creature features and horror films, he still won.

I'm not entirely arguing for this position myself by the way, but there's not only enough discourse recently about it, but in general to whether or not someone's personality and likeability can affect their chances.

So overall, do you think it plays a significant part?