The movies ranked based on their chances to win:

In my opinion.

  1. The Brutalist: 37%

  2. Anora: 36%

  3. Conclave: 8%

  4. Wicked: 5%

  5. A Complete Unknown: 4%

  6. The Substance: 4%

  7. I'm Still Here: 3%

  8. Emilia Pérez: 1%

  9. Nickel Boys: <1%

  10. Dune: Part Two: <1%