Playoffs??

To start, I do not think we will be in the playoffs.

But I like to do math sometimes.

So I've calculated our chances with the Charges pretty clearly going to win this game against the broncos.

We would need either the Broncos or Charges to lose 2/2 remaining. In addition, we need the Colts to lose 1/3.

The odds of one of those scenarios happening is ~38%. Which yes, that means even if the Dolphins win all 3, it's only 38% chance.

If the broncos would have pulled this out, it would be 65% as we would only need the Chargers to lose 1/2, and the Colts to lose 1/3

But essentially we all know the dolphins winning all 3 is far from a guarantee (about 12.5% likely), so I calculated it out and the chances of the first scenario where the dolphins games are undecided (as in we do not know the outcome yet) is ~2.3%

Do with this information, what you will. I am watching individual players to see who wants/deserves to be here next year.

Math for those interested

1. Broncos OR Chargers lose 2 of their 2 remaining games

• Probability of one team losing 2 games:
  P(Lose 2 games) = 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25
• Probability at least one loses both games:
  P(Broncos OR Chargers) = P(Broncos lose 2) + P(Chargers lose 2) - P(Both lose 2) P(Broncos OR Chargers) = 0.25 + 0.25 - (0.25 × 0.25) P(Broncos OR Chargers) = 0.4375

2. Colts lose 1 of their 3 remaining games

• Probability of winning all 3 games:
  P(Win all 3) = 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125
• Probability of losing at least 1 game:
  P(Lose at least 1) = 1 - P(Win all 3) P(Lose at least 1) = 1 - 0.125 = 0.875

3. Combined Probability

P(Both) = P(Broncos OR Chargers) × P(Colts Lose 1) P(Both) = 0.4375 × 0.875 = 0.3828125